Rep. Carolyn McCarthy to retire; Kevan Abrahams to seek her seat

[DC Rumors]

Unconfirmed rumors are suggesting that U.S. Congressional Representative Carolyn McCarthy is preparing to retire at the end of her current term to spend time with her family. Among those rumored to be seeking her replacement is Nassau County Legislator Kevan Abrahams.

Sources close to Abrahams suggest he is prepared to recve assistance from the Obama campaign as Carolyn McCarthy was a solid and consistent supporter of both U.S. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign.

The deal was first rumored when Jesse Jackson who is alleged to be working behind the scenes on behalf of Obama reached out to Abrahams in Janaury 2008 at the Nassau County Legislature's swearing in. Jackson who is also from Chicago as is Obama, was very impressed with the talented lawmaker.

[SeeYa55555]

Unconfirmed rumors are suggesting that U.S. Congressional Representative Carolyn McCarthy is preparing to retire at the end of her current term to spend time with her family. Among those rumored to be seeking her replacement is Nassau County Legislator Kevan Abrahams.

Sources close to Abrahams suggest he is prepared to recve assistance from the Obama campaign as Carolyn McCarthy was a solid and consistent supporter of both U.S. President Bill Clinton and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign.

The deal was first rumored when Jesse Jackson who is alleged to be working behind the scenes on behalf of Obama reached out to Abrahams in Janaury 2008 at the Nassau County Legislature's swearing in. Jackson who is also from Chicago as is Obama, was very impressed with the talented
lawmaker.


Welcome Congressman Skelos!

[Unregistered2221]

Welcome Congressman Skelos!


If you think the GOP has a chance to take this seat if McCarthy indeed retires in a Presidential election of all years you are indeed insane.

[LEFTIEEEEEE]

If you think the GOP has a chance to take this seat if McCarthy indeed retires in a Presidential election of all years you are indeed insane.

If its Obama, McCain will do very well in Nassau and Suffolk Counties. Hillary is a much tougher candidate.

Obama is WAY too left for LI.

[Unregistered8888]

If its Obama, McCain will do very well in Nassau and Suffolk Counties. Hillary is a much tougher candidate.

Obama is WAY too left for LI.


This isn't exactly Long Island of 20 years ago.... McCain is basically running as Bush's 3rd term and Bush's approval on Long Island is about as low as it can possibly get. That little disaster in Iraq isn't exactly too popular around these parts ther. Granted McCain does better here than Huckabee would have, who would have been absolutely slaughtered, but Obama will still comfortably win LI & by larger margins than Kerry did with the 9/11 bounce Bush recved here long gone and Kerry still won the district by double digits.

[Unregisteredfdfdfddf]

This isn't exactly Long Island of 20 years ago.... McCain is basically running as Bush's 3rd term and Bush's approval on Long Island is about as low as it can possibly get. That little disaster in Iraq isn't exactly too popular around these parts ther. Granted McCain does better here than Huckabee would have, who would have been absolutely slaughtered, but Obama will still comfortably win LI & by larger margins than Kerry did with the 9/11 bounce Bush recved here long gone and Kerry still won the district by double digits.


Obama will lose LI by AT L 60-40. LI is LESS comservative than it was, but it is STILL more conservative than liberal. Obama IS WAY TOO LIBERAL FOR LI.

Look at Steve Levy. Even Suozzi isn't as far left as Obama.

Hillary would carry LI probably pretty easily.

[Lou D'Amaro]

Figure Obama wins NY maybe 52-48. Maybe.

[Unregistered5]

I love when people who work in civil service in Mineola think they know what's happening in Albany and Washington.

Let's look at Carolyn McCarthy's latest FEC filing - hmm, she's spent money for fundraising consulting in March of 2008, a direct mail downpayment, $3600 for the Nassau Co. Independence Party, and has only given the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee $25,000. If she were retiring, she wouldn't have raised $700,000 and have $600,000 cash on hand - she would dumping it into vulnerable Democratic candidates for the House nor would her re-election website say "Re-Elect Carolyn McCarthy in 2008".

She's a subcommittee chairwoman, she ain't going anywhere for a long time.


As for NY, if it's Obama, he'll carry it 55-45.

[Unregistered2929]

Obama will lose LI by AT L 60-40. LI is LESS comservative than it was, but it is STILL more conservative than liberal. Obama IS WAY TOO LIBERAL FOR LI.

Look at Steve Levy. Even Suozzi isn't as far left as Obama.

Hillary would carry LI probably pretty easily.

Ok now that is just plain stupid. The last time the GOP Presidential candidate won Long Island was 1988, that was a much more Republican year nationwide than 08 is going to be, was during a time when Long Island was much more conservative than it is now, and even then they didn't win LI 60-40. LI has gone to the Dems in every election since then, in 2000 Gore won suffolk by over 11, Nassau by almost 20, and this in an election that was extremely close nationally.

The thought that McCain can win LI against Obama by 20 points, when the GOP candidate hasn't won LI in 20 years is hilarious. Not to mention the discussion in this post was based off the 4th district, which is a bit more Democratic than LI as a whole.

[aint over till over]

Ok now that is just plain stupid. The last time the GOP Presidential candidate won Long Island was 1988, that was a much more Republican year nationwide than 08 is going to be, was during a time when Long Island was much more conservative than it is now, and even then they didn't win LI 60-40. LI has gone to the Dems in every election since then, in 2000 Gore won suffolk by over 11, Nassau by almost 20, and this in an election that was extremely close nationally.

The thought that McCain can win LI against Obama by 20 points, when the GOP candidate hasn't won LI in 20 years is hilarious. Not to mention the discussion in this post was based off the 4th district, which is a bit more Democratic than LI as a whole.


Bush v. Kerry was 60%-40% in New York in a year when the national GOP didn't place an emphasis upon New York. Kerry lead a unified Democratic Party against a President who was under heavy challenge. Time will tell if the Democrats will leave thr convention unified, as the Clinton/Obama slugfest is tearing at the party apart along racial, social class, and ethnic fault lines. Hillary Clinton should perform strongly in New York, especially as the first viable female Presidential candidate, and should be able to at l match Kerry's margins, unless she faces a revolt from liberals and African American voters affronted by the divisive racial tone of her campaign (i.e. her husband's claim that Obama is using the "race card" and the comparision of the Obama campaign to the Jackson campaign). Obama's candidacy has raised some questions among blue collar whites and Jewish voters, and his numbers might suffer because of this in New York. There are so many unknowns in this election that you really cannot compare it to previous years. Also, with the Sean Bell verdict protests, as well as the Spitzer scandal, voters might be turning off to the Democrats. The Democrats' best hope is to ride a weak economy, Iraq, high gas prices, and the sub prime foreclosure crisis to victory in November, notwithstanding the ugliness of thr two presidential choices.

[Unregistered2288]

Bush v. Kerry was 60%-40% in New York in a year when the national GOP didn't place an emphasis upon New York. Kerry lead a unified Democratic Party against a President who was under heavy challenge. Time will tell if the Democrats will leave thr convention unified, as the Clinton/Obama slugfest is tearing at the party apart along racial, social class, and ethnic fault lines. Hillary Clinton should perform strongly in New York, especially as the first viable female Presidential candidate, and should be able to at l match Kerry's margins, unless she faces a revolt from liberals and African American voters affronted by the divisive racial tone of her campaign (i.e. her husband's claim that Obama is using the "race card" and the comparision of the Obama campaign to the Jackson campaign). Obama's candidacy has raised some questions among blue collar whites and Jewish voters, and his numbers might suffer because of this in New York. There are so many unknowns in this election that you really cannot compare it to previous years. Also, with the Sean Bell verdict protests, as well as the Spitzer scandal, voters might be turning off to the Democrats. The Democrats' best hope is to ride a weak economy, Iraq, high gas prices, and the sub prime foreclosure crisis to victory in November, notwithstanding the ugliness of thr two presidential choices.

Its been a highly contentious fight between Clinton & Obama, but in the end I really don't see Jews are working class dems revolting with Obama as the nominee. Just because they prefer Clinton over Obama, doesn't mean they will favor McCain over Obama. Jews are almost as overwhelmingly Democratic as African americans are (Kerry won 90% of the African american vote and somewhere in the 80's of the Jewish vote), thats not going to change.

As far as the working class vote goes, Clinton would do better than Obama would with the general, but I don't really see Obama doing any worse with them than Kerry did. The economic situation is going to be a major issue with the working class vote especially. They obviously prefer Clinton, but McCain's economic platform is basically following Bush and as a result McCain really won't be able to take much of an advantage of those disappointed that Clinton isn't the nominee. Obama's issues with the working class is more Clinton's popularity with them, than Obama's unpopularity with them.

Regardless, McCain isn't going to beat Obama on LI and he sure as hell isn't going to beat him by 20 points the suggestion is ludicrous. It was something Bush Sr couldn't do in a much more favorable national climate for the GOP and during a time when LI was MUCH more Republican than it is now.

Anyway the chances of McCarthy retiring is mute, but even if she does, we are talking about a district which the Dems will win by double digits on the Presidential level. How often has the opposing party won a district in an open seat race during a Presidential year when that district has been double digits to the Presidential candidate on the other side??

[oh pluezze]

Its been a highly contentious fight between Clinton & Obama, but in the end I really don't see Jews are working class dems revolting with Obama as the nominee. Just because they prefer Clinton over Obama, doesn't mean they will favor McCain over Obama. Jews are almost as overwhelmingly Democratic as African americans are (Kerry won 90% of the African american vote and somewhere in the 80's of the Jewish vote), thats not going to change.

As far as the working class vote goes, Clinton would do better than Obama would with the general, but I don't really see Obama doing any worse with them than Kerry did. The economic situation is going to be a major issue with the working class vote especially. They obviously prefer Clinton, but McCain's economic platform is basically following Bush and as a result McCain really won't be able to take much of an advantage of those disappointed that Clinton isn't the nominee. Obama's issues with the working class is more Clinton's popularity with them, than Obama's unpopularity with them.

Regardless, McCain isn't going to beat Obama on LI and he sure as hell isn't going to beat him by 20 points the suggestion is ludicrous. It was something Bush Sr couldn't do in a much more favorable national climate for the GOP and during a time when LI was MUCH more Republican than it is now.

Anyway the chances of McCarthy retiring is mute, but even if she does, we are talking about a district which the Dems will win by double digits on the Presidential level. How often has the opposing party won a district in an open seat race during a Presidential year when that district has been double digits to the Presidential candidate on the other side??


"Reagan Democrats" will not support Hillary or Obama. So, lose that fantasy. A portion of the Jewish community concerned about Israeli security will defect to McCain if Obama is the candidate, but may stick with Hillary, particularly in NY and CA. Hillary and Bill's slash and burn racial politics may depress voter turnout in ethnic communities which support Obama.

[Unregistered98989]

"Reagan Democrats" will not support Hillary or Obama. So, lose that fantasy. A portion of the Jewish community concerned about Israeli security will defect to McCain if Obama is the candidate, but may stick with Hillary, particularly in NY and CA. Hillary and Bill's slash and burn racial politics may depress voter turnout in ethnic communities which support Obama.

I doubt the Jewish community is going to defect to McCain in any way over Israeli security issues, his Iraq War stance, which is extremely unpopular in the Jewish community, demolishes any chance of that happening.

As far as Reagan Democrats, the Dems have lost quite a bit of those granted, but the GOP has also lost in mass the Rockefeller Republicans. The Rockefeller Republicans fleng the GOP has played a big role in the Dem gains here on LI especially on the Presidential level. Obama will have tons of appeal toward them, the McCain of 2000 may have been able to do decent with them, but not the mcCain of 08 especially with the Iraq situation over everyones heads. And in NY and in the 4th you have many more Rockefeller Republicans than Reagan Democrats.

[Unregistered6868686868]

Kevan can not beat Dean Skelos. No way, no how.

[oh puleese ii]

I doubt the Jewish community is going to defect to McCain in any way over Israeli security issues, his Iraq War stance, which is extremely unpopular in the Jewish community, demolishes any chance of that happening.

As far as Reagan Democrats, the Dems have lost quite a bit of those granted, but the GOP has also lost in mass the Rockefeller Republicans. The Rockefeller Republicans fleng the GOP has played a big role in the Dem gains here on LI especially on the Presidential level. Obama will have tons of appeal toward them, the McCain of 2000 may have been able to do decent with them, but not the mcCain of 08 especially with the Iraq situation over everyones heads. And in NY and in the 4th you have many more Rockefeller Republicans than Reagan Democrats.

The traditional "Rockerfeller Republican" are the Knickerbocker Old Money "Dutch" who may be found in Manhattan and along the Hudson Valley. These were fully converted to liberal by the time Larry Rockerfeller ran his failed primary against Senator Al D'amato. You may have people who call themselves "moderate Republcans," but McCain's less strident positions on issues like Campaign Finance and his well documented clashes with the political right might actually attract these moderate voters, and his obvious moral character as demonstrated by his ex POW status could also attract these voters, particularly if he stands strong as a friend of Israel. It's very hard for anyone to paint McCain as an extremist or "Bush Third Term" when McCain faces unrelenting criticism from the Rush Limbaughs and Ann Coulters of the world. Both Clinton and Obama are ugly people with serious character flaws and deficiencies of moral fiber. Clinton with her phony tales of Bosnian sniper fire and Obama with his ties to political extremist clergy and an expressed disdain for the common man cannot compare to a man who stood up for nearly six years in a Viet Cong POW camp. McCain is a giant when compared to those two dwarves, which is becoming increasingly obvious.

[McCain and Hill]

just picture the contrast, Senator McCain, true war hero and leader, against Hillary Clinton- proven liar, with the biggest whopper about her ducking sniper fire in Bosnia. Monica took more "shots" than Hillary in the 90's, and probably spent more time in the oval office too.

BTW- McCarthy's running again. No doubt about that.

[Unregistered332]

The traditional "Rockerfeller Republican" are the Knickerbocker Old Money "Dutch" who may be found in Manhattan and along the Hudson Valley. These were fully converted to liberal by the time Larry Rockerfeller ran his failed primary against Senator Al D'amato. You may have people who call themselves "moderate Republcans," but McCain's less strident positions on issues like Campaign Finance and his well documented clashes with the political right might actually attract these moderate voters, and his obvious moral character as demonstrated by his ex POW status could also attract these voters, particularly if he stands strong as a friend of Israel. It's very hard for anyone to paint McCain as an extremist or "Bush Third Term" when McCain faces unrelenting criticism from the Rush Limbaughs and Ann Coulters of the world. Both Clinton and Obama are ugly people with serious character flaws and deficiencies of moral fiber. Clinton with her phony tales of Bosnian sniper fire and Obama with his ties to political extremist clergy and an expressed disdain for the common man cannot compare to a man who stood up for nearly six years in a Viet Cong POW camp. McCain is a giant when compared to those two dwarves, which is becoming increasingly obvious.


The three biggest issues heading into the Election is Iraq, the economy and health care. McCain has the EXACT same positions as Bush on these issues. The three issues that rate among the top issues in the election, are three of the issues where people are most disastisifed with Bush on and McCain has the exact sameposition, thats not going to endear many of these moderates to him Another problem McCain has is in order to win the GOP nomination he has turned toward the right quite a bit. He basically sold his moderate soul in order to get the nod. In 2000 he was calling Falwell & Robertson the "ageents of intolerance" now all of a sudden he has tried to mend fences with them, spoken at thr University's has happily taken the enorsment & sought out the endorsment of Hagee. He went from bng critical on the tax cuts on those making over $250000 to championing them. He is also a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq. McCain is not the McCain of 2000 and won't be seen that way.

[Unregistered3232]

Kevan can not beat Dean Skelos. No way, no how.

1. its mute because McCarthy isn't retiring, but if she was he would beat Skelos, epsecially in a Presidential year where the Dem would win the district on the top of the ticket by double digits.

[oh gawd]

1. its mute because McCarthy isn't retiring, but if she was he would beat Skelos, epsecially in a Presidential year where the Dem would win the district on the top of the ticket by double digits.

A "mute" point. Don'tcha mean a "moot" point. Gawd, these Democrats be stoopit n sheet.

[Unregistered1221]

A "mute" point. Don'tcha mean a "moot" point. Gawd, these Democrats be stoopit n sheet.

Excuse me for typing a bit too quickly...