Predictions for Nassau 2005

All Nassau Offices (less the judicial candidates)

Countywide:
Suozzi - 53 Peterson - 47
Dillon - 55 Rice - 45
Clavin - 51 Weitzman - 49
O'Connell - 53 Ferrell - 47

ToH
Supervisor: Murray - 60 Levinson - 40
1st: Goosby - 65 Jackson - 35
4th: Santino - 57 Bechtle - 43
6th: Hudes - 55 Smith - 45
Clerk: Bonilla by 55+

ToNH
Supervisor: Kaiman - 63 Harrington - 37
1st: Troiano - 53 Moroney - 47
3rd: Ferrara - 53 Mortensen - 47
5th: Seeman - 60 McHugh - 40
Clerk: Schimel by 58+

TOB
Supervisor: Venditto - 62 Burke - 38
Townboard:
Delligatti - 57
Faughnan - 55
Coschignano - 52
McCaffery - 48
Dane - 45
Cherlin -43
Clerk: Labriola by 55+

Legislature:
1st - Abrahams
2nd - Corbin
3rd - Ciotti
4th - Ford
5th - Scannell
6th - Becker
7th - Katz
8th - Muscarella
9th - Nicolello
10th - Altmann
11th - Johnson
12th - Schmitt
13th - Gonsalves
14th - Mejias
15th - Dunne
16th - Jacobs
17th - Mangano
18th - Yatauro
19th - Dennenberg (even though he plead guilty to election fraud, he's Mr. Merrick and people love him)

Wow, we must be connected. Same post (almost) at the same time. :shock:

[counter]

not good at all the names versus parties in Leg

Is your pick 10-9 republican?

I think Suozzi will get 55+.

Dillon v. Rice (too close to call)

Dillon/Rice is closer than 10 points and could go either way. Dillon is going nuts now with last minute campaigning. He's campaigning like a guy that just got bad polling numbers. I would keep on eye on this one big time.

Weitzman v. Clavin (Weitzman)

Weitzman/Clavin is close, probably same numbers. Suozzi coattails will pull Weitzman in. The negative campaigning from Clavin hasn't really helped his numbers much. I don't think Weitzman had a ton of name recognition and, in circumstances like that, a negative campaign isn't the way to go.

Ferrel loses

Ferrel isn't running strong, so I agree with you there. She's prob a real disappointment to Suozzi and company.

NH I agree. (Dem stronghold)

TOH I agree. (Rep stronghold and the Dems really aren't trying, unless you call Levinson's feable campaign an effort) Harvey is going to get his ass handed to him.

TOB, I agree with you. GOB will wipe out the Dem slate.

County Leg.,

Solomon over Ford

I am going to have to go with Solomon over Ford. Ford's a nice lady, but she didn't do much in her first two years and she isn't going to capture the Dem vote like she did on '03. She would have lost in 'O3, except for that dumbass classless move by that idiot Zapson.

Mirza and Ciotti (too close to call)

The Demographics in the third have shifted and Mirza has worked his campaign hard. Plus, he'll pull out the Pakistani vote, which is substantial in this LD and normally doesn't come out, but for this campaign, they will. Will see how Joe Cairo tries to mess around, and that's going to be a key for the GOP.

Tobak v. Katz (Toback)

Katz has run a remote control campaign, relying on the PBA to carry his water. He wasn't visible at all outside his Schul. The orthodox community is very fickle and he pissed off people in his own community off by sending out mailers with yamulkhas on for the Orthodox and non yamulkhas to the non-religious and non-jewish. That's amateur hour and it backfired. This is a traditional Dem stronghold, it goes to Toback.

Mejias v. Sabillico

Meijias has some issues, but Sabilloco has run an invisible campaign. The GOP picked a weak one for this race and it was winnable. You could thank Mondello for that one.


The other legs are basically unopposed.

[questionerr]

The other legs are basically unopposed.

This may be a stupid question, but since it's concerning Denis Dun, that's appropriate:

I think Dun will win, but if it's such a lock, why did Dun run away from debating CClarkk? Why does he have far more signs that he usually has? And why are Dun's people stealing CClarkk signs all over the district?

Any reason to think Dun will win by a smaller margin this year?

[Door to Door]

You haven't been paying attention in the 13th L.D. Maher and friends having been doing the door-to- door method.


Signs, websites all the rest is bologna. You can't fake it. If the voters don't know you, they don't vote for you. Door to Door works with phone banks.

[Givin]

Johnn Clarke wins handily in the 15th with voters who have an IQ
over single digits.

Dillon v. Rice (too close to call)

Dillon/Rice is closer than 10 points and could go either way. Dillon is going nuts now with last minute campaigning. He's campaigning like a guy that just got bad polling numbers. I would keep on eye on this one big time.




I agree. I think you are on to something here. Something strange is going on in this race. Rice is running like she is on the verge of winning and Dillon is running for his life! Something interesting is showing up in polls. Stay tuned.

[D. CLAVIN]

DENIS DILLON ALWAYS RUNS HARD AT THE END, AND HE ALWAYS RUNS LIKE HE'S BEHIND....TODAY I GOT A CALL FROM HIM AND MY WIFE GOT A LETTER FROM HIS WIFE....WE WINS BY ATLEAST 8 POINTS....

[Mirza Beat]

He doesnt win. He loses by 10 and then its off to Pakistan.

DENIS DILLON ALWAYS RUNS HARD AT THE END, AND HE ALWAYS RUNS LIKE HE'S BEHIND....TODAY I GOT A CALL FROM HIM AND MY WIFE GOT A LETTER FROM HIS WIFE....WE WINS BY ATLEAST 8 POINTS....

Now that is a lie. Dillon has never had to run hard before. He never had a real challenge before.

Johnn Clarke wins handily in the 15th with voters who have an IQ
over single digits.

lol, how true.

[cor'ect'r]

Johnn Clarke wins handily in the 15th with voters who have an IQ over single digits.

Yes, and if you could win with only 1000 or so votes, then Clarke wins.

This is funny and all, but brings up a good point: in almost all of the 'debates' on here about leg. candidates, no one suggests that the other guy (or gal) is completely without merit - not even the people who HATE the opponent say that their worthless.

And yet pretty much everyone who is honest on here agrees that Dun has no merit, nothing to recommend him. even the partisan loyalists who want him to win only want it for party gain - no one thinks Dun is qualified and no one thinks he does a good job.

Is that a fair assessment of the feelings on here? Cause if there are Dun supporters who can make the case for him substantively - and not just Dun supporters who delete posts critical of him - you should speak up - as far as i know, you never have!

All Nassau Offices (less the judicial candidates)

Countywide:
Suozzi - 53 Peterson - 47
Dillon - 51 Rice - 49
Weitzman - 52 Clavin - 48
Ferrell - 50.1 O'Connell - 49.9

ToH
Supervisor: Murray - 65 Levinson - 35
1st: Goosby - 65 Jackson - 35
4th: Santino - 57 Bechtle - 43
6th: Hudes - 55 Smith - 45
Clerk: Bonilla by 55+

ToNH
Supervisor: Kaiman - 63 Harrington - 37
1st: Troiano - 61 Moroney - 39
3rd: Ferrara - 51 Mortensen - 49
5th: Seeman - 65 McHugh - 35
Clerk: Schimel by 60+

TOB
Supervisor: Venditto - 62 Burke - 38
Townboard:
Delligatti - 57
Faughnan - 55
Coschignano - 52
McCaffery - 48
Dane - 45
Cherlin - 43
Clerk: Labriola by 55+

Legislature: No change
1st - Abrahams
2nd - Corbin
3rd - Ciotti
4th - Ford - close
5th - Scannell
6th - Becker
7th - Toback - close
8th - Muscarella
9th - Nicolello
10th - Altmann
11th - Johnson
12th - Schmitt
13th - Gonsalves
14th - Mejias - close
15th - Dunne - should lose, but won't
16th - Jacobs
17th - Mangano
18th - Yatauro
19th - Dennenberg

[Forgetting]

On the Suozzi race, people are forgetting that bruno is in the race and will get a couple of percentage points away from Peterson. Thus, the Suozzi/Peterson numbers will not equal 100%. Perhaps Suozzi (58%) Peterson (40%) Bruno (2%). Weitzman wins, Rice and Ferrell both lose. Legislature stays 10-9 but then civil war among dems breaks out over presiding officer.

Suozzi by a nose.

Clavin, Dillon, Leg (10-9) all GOP

Audits, grand juries, leg investigations on Suozzi admin start Jan 1st.

Have a nice day.

[predictor]

Here's 2005 predictions:

Suozzi 59 Peterson 38 Bruno 3

Clavin 51, Weitzman 49
Rice (thisclose) over Dillon
O'Connell 52, Ferrell 48

Reps take over Leg. 10-9
(Katz upsetting Toback)

TOH
Murray 60, Levinson 40
Bonilla romps
Town board stays Rep.

TOB
All Reps. win in Venditto's landslide win

GC
Holzkamp wins narrowly over R. Suozzi
Dems take all city council seats except for O'Regan

NASSAU:
Suozzi 52, Peterson 47, Bruno 1
Dillon 57, Rice 43
Clavin 50.1, Weitzman 49.9
O'Connell 54, Ferrell 46

TOH:
Murray 59, Levinson 41
Bonilla 58, Gorman 42
Santino 59, Bechtle 41
Goosby 75, Jackson 25
Hudes 61, Smith 39

TOB:
Venditto 66, Burke 34
Labriola, 61, Funk 39
Faughan 20
Coshignano 19
McCaffery 18
Delliggatti 17
Dane 13
Cherlin 12

TNH:
Kaiman 60, Harrington 40
Schimel 62, Chisari 38
Troiano 51, Moroney 49
Ferrara 56, Mortensen 44
McHugh 52, Seeman 48


Thats what I predict. Though I honestly think Frank Moroney has a very legitimate chance to win. It depends on how many people in Carle Place come out to vote. In the County Races, Dillon's performance will determine the Victor of the Comptroller race.

[T's picks]

Suozzi wins easily

TOB, TONH & TOH incumbents all win

Nassau Leg all Dem incumbents win, Ford wins on Suozzi coatails 11-8 Dem leg advantage, could even add as Clarke & Mirza will make it real close

Dillon & Rice will be pretty close, Dillon should pull it out though

Suozzi wins easily

TOB, TONH & TOH incumbents all win

Nassau Leg all Dem incumbents win, Ford wins on Suozzi coatails 11-8 Dem leg advantage, could even add as Clarke & Mirza will make it real close

Dillon & Rice will be pretty close, Dillon should pull it out though

I'm suprised how many Clark fans, Dunne haters are here. I bet it's Dunne haters and he's worth hating. I doubt it's too close, but that's not John's fault. He's at a real disadvantage in voters.

[My Predictions]

Suozzi-57, Peterson-41, Bruno-2
Weitzman-54, Clavin-46
Rice-50.3, Dillon-49.7
O'Connell-51, Ferrell-49
Legislature-Solomon beats Ford, all other incumbents stay put

Murray-54, Levinson-46

Supreme Court--5 seats up--
First 3 taken by Ed McCarty, Angela Iannacci, and Karen Murphy (tragic, but the woman's got the Indepence and Conservative lines, the only candidate with both those lines. Not to mention female gender and an Irish name). For the last two, free for all between Marks, MacKenzie, Mayer, Meguin, and Fairgrieve. Keep in mind, that's including Suffolk's votes.

County Court--McCormack and Palmieri.

District Court, Hempstead/Long Beach--Maron, Gartner, Moser, Janowitz, Knobel.

District Court, North Hempstead: Commissiong

[t]

Suozzi wins easily

TOB, TONH & TOH incumbents all win

Nassau Leg all Dem incumbents win, Ford wins on Suozzi coatails 11-8 Dem leg advantage, could even add as Clarke & Mirza will make it real close

Dillon & Rice will be pretty close, Dillon should pull it out though

I'm suprised how many Clark fans, Dunne haters are here. I bet it's Dunne haters and he's worth hating. I doubt it's too close, but that's not John's fault. He's at a real disadvantage in voters.

You have a good point, I probably should have wordedit better instead of saying real close, more along the lines of much closer than expected. Dunne should win, and probably by more than just a couple points, but its not going to be the blowout the makeup of the district would lead you to believe. The Mirza race should be pretty close, however

[Indy the Reformer II]

I think many races will be very close, some closer than they have been before.

Suozzi 54, Peterson 45, Bruno 1
Weitzman 51, Clavin 49
O'Connell 56, Ferrell 44
Dillon 55, Rice 45

All Legislature incumbents win except for Ford (56-44 Solomon), but Toback, Ciotti, Yarturo, Mejias all win nailbiters (<53).

Murray 53, Levinson 47
All TOH Board and other TOH townwide incumbents win about 60-40

Sorry, but I have not been following other town races much.

[t]

will expand on my previous predictions

Weitzman wins 54%-46%

Dillon defeats Rice 52%-48%

Suozzi wins 61%-35%-4%

TOH Murray wins 53%-47% (closest of all the town races)

Some races from the Leg

Ford wins 56%-44%

Dunne wins 53%-47%

Mejias wins 54%-46%

Mirza too close too call

I'm suprised how many Clark fans, Dunne haters are here. I bet it's Dunne haters and he's worth hating. I doubt it's too close, but that's not John's fault. He's at a real disadvantage in voters.

Don't be surprised about Clarke fans...don't think too many people knew there was a choice in 2003, and he's done a much better job at getting the word out this year.

And I don't think it's Dun-"haters" so much as realists who see that he hasn't done anything as a legislator. Now, for those who know him personally, it could be a hater thing...i just mean on here, it's let's dump the do-nothing and try someone who actually wants to get things done.

And yes - disadvantage to say the least...in the 15th - the only district this is true - republicans outnumber dems plus all other parties, and blanks, combined. They make a republican super-district and they have to go and give it to Dun!

[t]

will expand on my previous predictions

Weitzman wins 54%-46%

Dillon defeats Rice 52%-48%

Suozzi wins 61%-35%-4%

TOH Murray wins 53%-47% (closest of all the town races)

Some races from the Leg

Ford wins 56%-44%

Dunne wins 53%-47%

Mejias wins 54%-46%

Mirza too close too call

That should be Solomon wins, not Ford

[BWAAAAH]

I see the Suozz has his minions posting the upcoming election numbers. It's so transparent of the Suozz's minions and their desperate attempt to sway voter opinion. Just remember they said Kerry was ahead of Bush in last years Presidental election. I for one see the the Suozz and Peterson's race neck and neck and that's all that matters on election day. So buttmunchers try keeping it real next time and blah, blah, blah

Just remember they said Kerry was ahead of Bush in last years Presidental election.

Yeah - and HE WAS. LIKE, IN OHIO?

Ohio 2004 was a repeat of Florida 2000. Bush stole 2000 and 2004.

And the rest of the country now is realizing that all the things we said about Bush - that he was unqualified, that he had no good ideas, that he would ruin the country, that you can't have a non-recovered addict as President - were true.

The Nassau Repugs should count their lucky stars that the national anti-Repug sentiment hasn't filtered to the local level - yet.

WHAT VOTER!!!! NO REAL VOTER READS THIS SITE!!!

The only bad thing about Peterson losing will be all the whining and crying from the repubs on this board.

[Predictions2005]

County Exec: Suozzi - 60% Peterson, 38% Bruno, 2%

DA: Dillon, 50.5 - 51% Rice, 49.5 - 49%

TOH- Sup: Murray, 55%
Clerk: Bonilla, 56-60%

TONH: Sup: Kaiman, 55%

TOB: Sup: Venditto 60%

Nassau Legislature:
3- Ciotti, 50.5 - 51% Mirza, 49.5 - 49%
4- Ford, 52% Solomon, 48%
7- Toback, 49% Katz, 51%
14- Mejas, 51% Sebellico, 49%

The only bad thing about Peterson losing will be all the whining and crying from the repubs on this board.

Isn't that what they do anyway? They own TOH, owned Nassau for 100 years (and almost still do), own more than half of the statehouses and governorships, own the Supreme Court, own the House of Representatives, own the Senate, own the White House, own Wall Street, own most of corporate America, own more than 75% of what is known as the "mainstream media" - and still they whine all the time about "the culture" - THEY ARE THE AMERICAN CULTURE.

They bought it/stole it, they f**ked it up, and still they whine.

Republicans. It's What They Do.