Are NY Republicans starting to worry about Coatails!

[politics64]

When I read recently about former NY Senator Al Damato weighing in on the issue of replacing VP Cheney, I could not help but to wonder if this LI Pol was the point man for the state and local GOP in saying, "Hey!, this ticket is burning bad in New York this November that our Republican State Senators and Assemblymen down the line may go with them". Does anyone have any thoughts as to how a 25% to 30% Kerry Edwards NY win statewide with a likely 15% LI area win could impact some of the closer state rep races?
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[Gerry]

al is only out for himself, he's already milking the locals why not take on bigger fish!
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[Cicero]

It is quite likely that the Kerry/Edwards ticket could win with a 15% margin in Nassau. The problem with regard to local races is that the incumbent usually wins with a 20 - 25% margin.

Whatever the margin may be, the local races are not going to outpace the top of the ticket.

My bet is that all teh incumbents win. Maybe not by as much as they usually do, but still with comfortable leads.
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[Cato]

Last time the top of the ticket really made a difference was 1964, when Nassau Dems were able to elect two congresspeople (Tenzer and Wolff), a County Clerk and Comptroller (and get Nickerson re-elected), a bunch of assemblypeople and judges....Not a single state senator!

In 1980, it worked the other way, and Republicans were able to oust some Dems (Wolff) in Reagan's landslide.

But the Clinton landslides didn't help all that much, except maybe to help elect some Dem judges. Part of that is probably a shift in demographics. If Dems put up some really good candidates for state senate (does anyone have any idea who they've found, anyway?), it would be uphill unless one of the Reps had a "Jack Ryan" situation.

Suozzi is right, though. If the entire NY Legislature were sent to explore Saturn's rings, we would all be better off!
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[politics64]

Which races on LI do you see as competitive state reps. i.e. Raia v Cuthbertson in Suffolk?
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[politics64]

Thankyou for your response. I respectfully need to correct a couple of your points, The Johnson Landslide certainly had coatails but it was County Assessor Horace Kremer, not the Comptroller that the Nassau Dems carried. You are correct on all other 64 points except the State Senate comment. Ed Speno was the lone State Senator. In those days they were elected one per county regardless of population. My handle indicates my affection for that campaign

In 1996, Clinton had major down ballot coattails on Judicial races and assembly but no state senate as you point out.

I would add that the statewide win will be 25 - 30 points, the Nassau win will be close to the statewide win of 25% not 15%. Suffolk and upstate will be 15%, the city will be about 40%.

My point is really to Damato checking in and his motives understanding his Pataki, Guiliani, oe Bruno etal relations.
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[Cato]

In 1964, the Nassau Dems had a clean sweep...the county clerk was Ornstein, the comptroller Rocchio and they even elected the sheriff, Dugan, who died right after he was sworn in -- he'd campaigned to abolish the job. Nickerson was re-elected handily at the top. I don't believe the assessor was in play that year. All the county-wide Dems except Nickerson were swept out in 1967 -- when Nick beat the "esteemed" Sol Wachtler!

Also, there were more senators besides Speno at the time such as Curran from the N. Shore and Lent from Malverne.....and maybe another (we are really going back here)..Dems were even able to elect a judge or two...RFK did not do all that badly in Nassau, either...But I still don't see much connection to '04. Overall, people are somewhat more sophisticated and split tickets more than the old days. Still bet all the incumbents will be re-elected for senate and assembly...


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[politics64]

Rocchio? Peter Rocchio was a state senate candidate in 1954. No Cato, nobody knows 1964 better than Politics64. That was the year of Jerry McDougal and John Thorpe, Herbert Tenzer and Lester Wolf. Knickerson, Ohrenstein and Horace K. Ed Speno was the survivor of the sweep. Lent and others came in the 1965 special election when Rockefeller unhappy with the sweep got a court ruling on redistricting and they all ran again in the off year. That was when McDougal ran for Hempstead Supervisor and Jerry Kremer replaced him.

By the way, Coatails are not gone with voter sophistication. You think Howard Weitzman won in 2001 by 10,000 without Suozzi winning by 100,000. You think they fell just 6,000 short on the Clerk that year by running a corpse who did not even campaign or spend a dime against Murphy? No my dear Cato, something is up with Damato, Pataki and Bruno. They are worried or Damato would never have offered that trial balloon to dump Cheney
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[politics04]

64 is very interesting to read, it is fun to reflect but like he said more ticket splitters today. No surprises in 04 status quo rules the day. Murphy (if she runs) gets re-elected next time irrespective of the Suozzi showing, CE will never see those margins again.

[Fact Checker]

Sorry, politics64, but Cato has his facts right. I was a friend and admirer of Horace Kramer, but he was never elected. He came close twice (Presiding Supervisor, '63, Board of Assessors, '67).

The Dems won 3 of the 6 Assembly seats in 64 and thought they'd won a Senate seat, but lost on the recount. One of the judgeships ended in a tie, the only judgeship the Dems didn't win that night.

[politics64]

Fact Checker, I am Google Searching all over to find the names of those 64 winning Dems. Where are you getting your info from on this? Is there a Web site you can direct me to? I very specifically remember when Horace Kramer lost re-election for Board of Assessors aroug 1970 or 71. Newsday pronounced it as the official end of the "English" era because he was the last of the four Countywide non Judicial officials elected under his leadership. I thought Knickerson, Ohrenstein and Dugan were the other three. I remember Thorp, McDougal and I think Stanley Harwood or Irwin Landis was the third assemblyman elected that year.

Back to Cato's initial points, Do you think Kemp Hannon is highly vulnerable this year and who are the Dems running against him?
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[Cato]

Well, thanks...Nice to be proved correct. I am amazed I remember all this garbage from 40 years ago! I recall one of the other Ds elected to Assembly that year was Herbert Sachs around Bellmore. I certainly recall Jerry McDougal beating Carlino ("Joe must go!')..If Carlino is still around, he must be 99 years old! Interesting that we haven't had a Nassau Speaker since him. Maybe if Silver is indicted, DiNapoli can be Speaker. He is no genius but that would be a good job for him. Read he wants to be Lt. Gov., waiting for Gov. Spitzer to let him do something!

The 1964 judge campaign was Lippman-Altimari. Lippman, the D. won by a single vote and Altimari, the R. was cross-endorsed the next year. He later ended up on the Fed bench, etc., and Lippmann died relatively soon into his term.

If you want to check some of this stuff, suggest you use your local library online New York Times back files and look up things from November, 1964...It's all there! The library access is free (if you don't count the property tax!)

In Nassau, for Democrats, there were a couple of watersheds...Nickerson 1961, whenever Bea Burstein got elected to the Family Court the first time (only later did she get to Supreme Court), an Oyster Bay Supervisor Petito around that time who was later murdered (as a judge) and 1964 for getting Dems elected to all kinds of things and bringing up talent that is still around today.

Another person who brought people into the party was Allard K. Lowenstein, who served in Congress from the 5th CD 1969-71 and was gerrymandered into the 4th in 1970, to lose to Lent. A lot of people in Nassau -- not to mention the country -- were drawn into activism by him, I remember him well (if you recall, in 1968, Al Dorfman was going to run for Congress and Lowenstein was brought in as a carpertbagger. Lowenstein got Dorfman to run for DA against a Conservative named Bouse who lost to Cahn...and many years later, Dorfman went to prison for stealing!) And it was Denis Dillon who finally defeated Cahn and sent him to prison, too! Remember when we could vote for Dillon?

Meanwhile, I'd sure like to know who any of the Democratic Senate candidates are against the Republicans; also, will there be any primaries at all in September? Judges? I know about the challenge to Sidikman, which sounds like a good idea.

Looking back 40 years is amazing but we need to look forward -- at least to defeat Bush, my God, whom I fear is going to be re-elected because our new JFK is no JFK (and I saw JFK in Commack for a few seconds in 1960!)
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[64 dem]

Franklin Ornstein

[politics64]

Cato, thanks for walks down memory lane. I grew up in Oceanside and was there as an 11 year old political junky in 1964. I live in Hauppauge these past 35 years, not far from where you saw JFK in 60. I agree this JFK is not that JFK but he and Clinton are rare in a lifetime. I personally assure you that this JFK is in the bag. Bush cannot win. He is lortally wounded and just doesn't know it. In fact this will end up an 8-10% win and an electoral college of 350 to 410 range.

It begs the point further as to not miss the opportunity to pick up acouple of State Senators this year. I think the turncoat Olga Mendez will lose in NYC to Jose Serrano Jr. and I thnk we will pick up the other Bronx open seat vacated by the republican jailbird. Those will make it 36-26. If Hannon and Trunzo got serious opposition the dems could get two more and one upstate. We could take it over in 06 with some LI and Queens republican retirements.

I am not as hard on Shelly Silver as you are. He has had to carry all the water himself over the past ten years. DiNapoli would be a better majority leader choice. With a 101 to 49 majority we do n ot have to worry about more pickups there. I will check the times site out and at my new Hauppauge library and let you know about my findings.
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[politics64]

Thanks Cato, My library provided online access to NY Times. I found the results of the campaign. Coatails did indeed topple a republican state senator. Henry Curran was defeated by Albert Kimball 123,000 to 122,000. In addition there was no County Comptroller race that year but also no DA or Board of Assessor races. Knickerson, Ornstein and Dugan were the countywide winners. You were right about Sachs winning the third assembly race in the county with McDougal and Thorp. Tenzer and Wolf won congress. Rep winners included John Wydler, congress, Norman Lent and Ed Speno state senate, Fran Purcell state assembly.

Thanks for the info to the Times site.
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[politics72]

this should be a wipe out.... We should be talking about Bush's coattails after Sandy Berger gets led away in cuffs for stealing classified documents. One wonders if this scandal, which appears to have reached Team Kerry, will actually reach Kerry himself.

[Cato]

Thanks, Politics64...You probably didn't go far enough in your NYT search...The Dems did NOT win a state senate seat in 1964...They did on Election Day, but in the recount, they lost and Sen. Curran ended up back in Albany...The same recounting also found the 1-vote lead for Judge Lippman.

Therefore, I believe that the first Democratic Nassau senator was Karen Burstein, who was elected from the Five Towns sometime in the '70s (but I don't remember when). Later, there was a Sen. Berman from same district. But I don't think these are the only two Dems from Nassau ever to hit the Senate -- am I right?

Also, Rocchio was indeed elected comptroller in '64, with Ornstein for Clerk, Dugan for sheriff and Nick at the top ( a class act)...

I don't believe Laura Davis is still alive but if she were around, would probably rattle off all these people and the margins by which they won. She was English's right hand...Amazing the twits and nebbishes who've been Nassau Dem chairmen since -- at least two imprisoned and the rest a mixed bag of mainly losers...
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[politics64]

I still can't find Peter Rocchio and that race listed among the others. I can't understand why the article left that one race out. You are correct that Burstein and Berman from the same district were the only Nassau\Suffolk area State Senators. About the closest was Hilliard Boss in Babylon losing to Owen Johnson in 1974 by 800 votes. I can't elieve Kimball had a 1000 vote margin election night that got lost on a recount? By the way, do you have a memory of Horace Kramer as Assessor? When did Eli Wager win his assembly seat?

I was a great fan of the English era. I would live to have been able to here the lady you mentioned rattling off those numbers.
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[Cato]

Politics64, Horace Kramer was a perennial candidate and loser. Presume he was appointed to the board of assessors by Nickerson -- as all the members are appointed by the County Executive except for the elected chairman...And I'm pretty sure that Levinson is first Dem ever elected as Chairman! (With necessary votes from Working Families and Independence).

Wager was elected to assembly around 1970 or so from the Five Towns and was another perennial...I presume that he was ultimately succeeded in the Five Towns/Long Beach district by Weisenberg, who's been in a long time...

Still believe that voters in general have become more ticket-splitters than ever, so that certain people seem to have lifetime incumbencies...look at Peter King in Congress, or someone like Balboni in N. Hempstead where just about all the Town officials are Democrats...The height of absurdity is judges. Virtually nobody has any idea who they are, yet there's been a kind of seesawing in recent years. People don't just vote party lines even for these. Interesting aspect of behavior that seems to rule against "coattails" or "landslides" as we've seen in the past.

Tip O'Neill may have been right when he said "all politics is local."


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[politics64]

All Politics is indeed local, Cato, The Judgeships are a great example. I recall in Suffolk County in the early 70's when Baranello and Schwenk felt the conservative party had become the tail wagging the dog, they did a cross endorsement ban on all non judicial races and major party cross endorsements on the judgeships. At that point the two of them had the power of their nominees being tantamount to election. I think the dems got one in every three nominations on that deal. It did restore a two party flavor to the County Legislature.

I recall Eli Wager and Jerry Kremer being gerrymandered into the same district and Jerry winning the primary around 1972 or so.

Was Mike Petito a judge when he got assassinated in Puerto Rico or was he still Oyster Bay Supervsor? One thing that came from his regime was the start of Lou Yevoli's town council career.

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[Cato]

Politics64, you probably need to check that NYT online database again, but memory is that Petito was killed in some hotel in Puerto Rico. Was a Supreme Court judge at the time. I have forgotten the circumstances, motives, etc....But point is that he, as well as other successful Dem lawyer-politicians like Suozzi Sr., John Thorp and Stanley Harwood, were gotten rid of in the past via the cross-endorsement route.

Since Clinton, Dems in Nassau-Suffolk have occasionally gotten elected to judgeships on Supreme Court and lower courts on their own, or with help from Working Families and Independence Party. That's part of the shift in the suburban areas.
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[politics64]

Right Cato, it was ahotel in Puerto Rico, People who loved the guy like a friend of mine who was an aid to him in TOB refer to it as an assassination. His enemies like to say he was murdered in a brothel.

There is a definite demographic shift in Nassau-Suffolk. You can see it in the growth of a wide variety of minority groups and also in the narrowing voter registration gaps over the past 20 or 30 years in both counties. I remember Harwood and Suozzi uncle losing offices. I do not recall John Thorpe losing until he decided to retire I thought undefeated from the assembly. Lawyer types probably dominated the Nassau dems so much in the 60s and 70s because of English's law firm prominance.

Oh Wait a second Cato, I just realized you were referring to Suozzi dad, Harwood and Thorpe losing their judicial elections because the reps had conservative cross endorsement. Thats true, are you in favor of outlawing cross endorsements in judicial campaigns?
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[64]

Thorp (not Thorpe) left the Assembly to become a County Court judge, and served until he aged out and had to leave the bench.

Harwood and Suozzi (father) each left the bench before their terms ended. Neither one was defeated in an election.

[Cato]

My friend, the point was that successful Dems who were able to get elected like Thorp, Harwood, others were kicked upstairs to judgeships with Republican cross-endorsements in the old days. This satisfied their egos, gave them long terms with good salaries/benefits and, most importantly, got them out of the way! They served well and were a credit...If not mistaken, even Eli Wager ended up as a judge, although not sure if he got a free ride from the Republicans.

That's how Suozzi Sr. ended up as a judge after running for County Executive in 1958...More recently, Kaiman, who'd failed for legislator and Nassau D.A. ran for a judgeship without Republican support and won...then quit to join a Suozzi-connected law firm and ran for supervisor and won...That's an exception.

After Sen. Keating was beaten in 1964 -- as I bet you recall -- he came back and ran for Court of Appeals either in '65 or '66 and served until he was 70, then ended up as Israel ambassador for a while under Nixon. He won easily. Voters "rewarded" him.

Back in 1972, Wachtler ran for Court of Appeals and won in the Nixon landslide. If you recall his commercials, the cell door slammed shut behind his smiling face! Probably better now that at least that court is not elected.

Would be interesting if some professor has analyzed judgeship returns on LI since the end of the cross-endorsement days and made any conclusions. Seems to me that results are pretty haphazard. There are few coattails. Sometimes seems as if someone who's been a Supervisor or County Exeucutive or well-known leader does well because of name recognition...

The other part is to analyze the role of the 2 minor parties -- Independence and Working Families -- to see if it makes a difference to the D vs R-C nominees. I believe they have in a handful of cases...
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[courtbuff]

Thorp got the judgeship to keep him from winning the Exec. race, and served honorably until his death in office.
Nobody "Runs" for court of appeals" they are appointed.

[politics64]

Courtbuf, Cato is right on two points, one, I did miss his point about the bumping upstairs aspect of cross endorsement, and secondly, back when Wachler ran the state court of Appeals wass elected, not appointed. You obviously don't have the same amount of snow on the roof that Cato and I have. Cato, remember when Jacob Fuchsburg narrowly lost his court of Appeals race to Judge Breitel after spending all those millions on tv adds. The next year he ran and won another court of Appeals seat wihout spending at all because he had so much exposure left over from the Breitel election. Keating did get elected to the Court of Appeals in 65.

Back to your point about bumping threatening officials to judgeships to get them out of the way and using the no lose carrot of cross endorsement, The reps in Babylon did that with Supervisot Arthur Pitts in the hope that they could win back the open supervisor race. They did not count on a guy named Rich Schaefer waiting in the wings for the dems to hold it.
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[Cato]

Politics64, I believe that was Fuchsberg's slogan in his TV commercials...He had tons of $$ from a negligence practice but believe Judge Breitel was a highly respected justice and had all the endorsements, etc., so he won...and then Fuchsberg won with D (and maybe Conservative lines, too?)and turned out to be a pretty good judge.

Still, as the Court of Appeals is now appointed, would think the lower courts ought to be appointed, too, but as the system rewards pols (as we've been discussing), it will never change.

In fact, I wonder who has filed for respective County, Family and District Courts in Nassau & Suffolk, anyway, this year...and who wants to be kicked upstairs to Supreme Court in the phony "conventions" to be held in September. Wouldn't it be interesting to know if a particular official (assemblyperson or supervisor) will go for a Supreme Court seat this year thinking that Kerry-Edwards would help? Have seen nothing in Newsday or NYT about this...
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[Don't Count Your Coattail]

Check the latest tracking polls. NY is still a solid "blue" state, but Kerry is only leading Bush 49-44 among likely voters. That's a 5-point spread +/- 3 points. Even assuming an 8-11 point return, Kerry's lead is still a far cry from the 25 pt margin Gore carried NY with in 2000.

[Query]

There is a statistical possibility that Bush is a mere October Surprise away from overtaking Kerry in New York. Outing Chaney's daughter hurt Kerry, and voided his debate momentum. Now, it is a race between who is better at generating the decisive October Surprise, the Federal Government (for Bush) or Viacom, (for Kerry).
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[stark reality]

I did check the tracking polls and I saw Kerry leading by 23 points (58% - 35%). Which polls did you check?
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[Dog the Wag]

I also do not know what kind of poll Query is seeing. My guess is that it was a Fox "News" or NY Post poll. I've seen some tracks and all have Kerry leading comfortably in NY. Even in this area, Kerry remains ahead from 9 to 11 points. Unlikely that Bush will overtake Kerry in NY. However, it is equally unlikely that Kerry will have coat tails locally. There could be a cumulatave coat tail effect in the 2nd CD area, with Kerry-Schumer-Israel. That may help others down ballot.

[Query]

I agree with you. I was reacting to the post just above mine. I see New York as a strong blue state, but not as strong as it was for Gore.
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[Dog the Wag]

Thanks for clearing that up. Sorry for the confusion. This old dog is getting sloppy! LOL

[Bushies for Israel]

with perhaps the exception of Florida

Kerry and his left wing base have done nothing for supporting Israel in it's time of need

on the contrary kerry and his left wing base have seeked Moslem support and have cozied up with the UN nations most agressively against Israel such as France Germany Russia China etc.

also the kerry supporters are much more vocal in their support of the Palestinians and Arafat

yet it was Arafat giving Clintons peace intiative the old heave ho in favor of killing and terror

Bush will receive a sizeable Jewish vote for being Israel's protector from a group of nations who want to destroy her. Many of those same nations corrupted and in the UN and secretly supporting terror.

[Cato]

Well, the polls are tied and Kerry may be able to pull it off. But "Bushies for Israel" ought to realize that if their evangelical alcoholic boy wins (doesn't steal the election), that he'll still be wanting to see Israel destroyed by the AntiChrist to pave the way for the Second Coming. Just read the Sunday NYT story on "faith." Any Jews who buy into his "terror" crap and buy his religiosity are being bamboozled. The only Jews he likes are Marvin Olasky and Jay Sekulow (who had a bar mitzvah in Merrick) -- who are now evangelical Christians like him (and presumably, not ex-alcoholics!).
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[Ish Kabbible]

His grandfather banked for the Nazis, his father took care of the Saud and al-Sabah clans with American blood and money, and Bush protected the Bin Laden clan on 9/11 and his underlings regularly spew anti-Semitic remarks [on Soros: "he was a Jew who figured out a way to survive the Holocaust." as if he should APOLOGIZE for survival].

Any Jew who would vote for Bush is a self-hater.

[Cut the Crap! George Duby]

Get over it, Babble. Kerry's paternal grandparents became Catholics -- just like your buddy Robert Novak or Lew Lehrman or Larry Kudlow. That the father committed suicide is his business. (You know that Laura Bush killed someone?).

So what. Good piece in Thursday's Newsday by Gershon Goremberg of The Jerusalem Report again points out the fallacy of Jewish support for Bush (almost as nutty as black support -- amazing that anyone besides Clarence Thomas and Condoleezza is for him...)

Still 13 days for you to repent, or become Christian which seems to be what you really want because the Bush worldview has no use for anyone who does not accept Jesus...