/Las Vegas Line: Key Nassau/Suffolk Races

[martys]

Goosby 10 Patton (if Dot stays on the D line, which is not assured). Dot may win at the BOE and lose in Court.

Kate Murray 18 PAtton or Goosby

Mejias 20 Klassert (14th LD) +

Carman 3 Mejias (14th LD, General) Due to Carman's loss
of the I line. This has tightened up.

Levy 5 Cunningham (Suffolk CE);a closer than expected race. Newsday will endorse Cunningham. This has been factored including a low voter turnout.

[Jimmy the Greek]

Carmen by 10

[Odds Evens]

Yu are not close.

[SLEEPER]

48-52 ===== DeAngelis upset

[Jean Dixon]

GOP resurgence!
NH holds Dem majority.
TH and TOB huge GOP sweeps which helps bring
a 12-7 Republican edge on County Legislature!
LB and GC remain Dem except GC sees a shift of 2 seats to GOP
O'Shea wins with the Conservative vote.
ALL judges go GOP.

[The Amazing Kreskin]

NC legislature goes 11-8 Democrat.
Levinson squeaks in as assessor.
NH stays Democratic with one lone GOP councilman.
GOP wins OB big.
GOP wins Hempstead except for Jeff Gold's upset.
LB and GC remain Democratic with no shifts.
Judgeships mixed.

JM doesn't get the money he ordered. Has to dip into piggy bank. Holds on for dear life.
JJ remains Democratic chair. Continues to try to get factions to play nice.

[crystal ball]

ciotti is seen by the crystal ball to be going down. down, down and he's gone. a blow to the west end.

[martys]

Pending the tax bills in October & the fact that Ciotti has the I and C lines, I will make it:

CIOTTI 3 DEANGELIS (at press time)


YATAURO 3 ANNUNZIATO; I'm assuming that Glen Cove (Yatauro) and Sea Cliff (Annunziato) balance each other out.
Suozzi's infuence with the North Shore Mayor's gives DY a 3 pt. advantge in this one. Paul needs to piggy back onto the Republican Oyster Bay slate, which is a tough one this year. Edited by: lipolitics at: 8/8/03 10:53 pm

[vegas changes]

this race has tightened incredibly over the past few weeks. DeAngelis is out there working hard. Operatives are all over Elmont. Ciotti base of North Valley Stream is openly threatened. This race is dead heat with momentum going to DeAngelis. Ciotti can pull it out but day is turning to night for John quickly. Murray does not help Ciotti-- Goosby aids DeAngelis. Councilman makes no effect in the race. All in all a tough campaign is upcoming for the west-end.

[Vegas Changes II]

WE WILL SEE.

[dutch broadway]

goosby will be no help to any TOH candidates. hey, this is still Mayberry guys.

[this is a fight]

ciotti does have the edge in this race. however, there are some real trouble spots for John. ciotti does not work the district (the NEW one) and is not known for his strong campaign style. Ambrosino is the council candidate and has not made a real impression in the district to help john. Murray is not well known and is not getting traction in the constituency groups that make up this LD. John is in it alone and he had better start to work now. DeAngelis is around and his campaign is aggressive- this is a fight.

[15 District]

I heard today up on Hempstead Turnpike that it's gonna be closer than that, so's we need to keep on convincing our fellow "rino's" (that's Republican In Name Only - like Mike B. in NYC) to get our act together so that we might actually get a real-live legislator in Mineola this time around with this kid Clark - hey, he worked six years (for free) to get a traffic light put up - I think he should get his 2 years at bat this year.

[WALT DISNEY]

BOTH REPS AND DEMS ARE EYEBALLING SIX LD SEATS.
THE DUNNE SEAT IS NOT ON ANYONE'S RADAR SCREEN.

[South Shore Rep]

How do you see the Toback and Scannell races at this time?

[That's the point]

Anyone who is remotely familiar with Nassau politics
could not make an argument that Muscarella(8th),
Niccollela (9th) and Gonzalves (13th) are on any target
list.
Dems have a shot at Ciotti.
Reps have a shot at Yaturo.
Dems are broke.
Reps have a damaged but still functioning machine.
We'll see if Denenberg, Scannell or Toback self destruct.
Only Rep who is vulnerable to self destuction is Carman
but so far that isn't happening.We'll see.
Could go 10-9 GOP.

[Amarillo Slim]

Give me all the action I can get on Yatauro -3. She wins VERY comfortably.

I am also taking Mejias +3. He wins outright, though narrowly (by 2-4%).

The line for Ciotti vs. DeAngelis looks right. I'll leave that one alone.

For the piece de resistance, gimme Cunningham +5. Levy's in free fall. Prepare to see the rarest of all political birds -- the upset blowout. This race will be on the board as a Pick 'Em by post time, so now's the time for bargain hunters to get their money in.

[Mary Jane]

Keep smokin that brand you'll get very sick. Too soon
to get confident on marginal races.
Cunningham is the one in a free fall.
Unless the Suffolk Dems are in a collective coma, Levy wins in a walk.

[Amarillo Slim]

Mary Jane, think twice on that CE race. Based on the strength of the Newsday endorsement and his campaign's volume of literature/outreach, Cunningham appears to have momentum heading into the final days. If this race is as advertised by previous posters -- a matchup of local gurus and their ground war versus pro advisors and their air war -- it appears the pros have gained the upper hand. To this observer, Cunningham looks more ready for prime time. Upset or not, Cunningham +5 is still a solid buy. Setting the spread at 5 must've looked like a reach a couple of months back, but the price looks steep now.

[Amarillo Skim]

Klurfeld isnt voting on primay day. The voters are. Kee p dreamng. Levy by 10.

[San Antonio Sam]

What are the Vegas odds on the Independence primary
between Denenberg and Mirotznik?
I give David a slight edge.

[ronknkmadem]

Once the the curtain is drawn, Slim, you can't control who the Democrats vote for, even with all the arm twisting and threats. I'll repost your "prediction" on Sept. 10. "But they said they're supporting us?" you'll say. Actions speak louder than words. Democrats will vote for the real Democrat when left to their own volition. Yes, Slim, Bill Cunningham.

[Amarillo Slim]

The one thing many handicappers have overlooked is that the Dem party insider vote that the Chairman thinks is bought and paid for may not STAY bought and paid for. Many Levy votes once thought to be "spoken for" may go the other way once that curtain is closed. There's no way to gauge it or measure its effect right now. I think of it as an undertow -- the unseen tide.

Naturally, I'd not object to your re-posting my original prediction on the 10th. It would spare me having to do a self-serving "I told you so" post.

[ronknkmadem]

Getting action on both sides... not a bad way to make some money.
Is that Cunningham +5 still available? That sounds like a good bet right now, that is if you have your ear to the ground...

[Amarillo Slim]

xx

[martys]

Levy 7 Cunningham; that's the latest. Are we giving or taking the 7?

[Amarillo Slim]

Fine by me. I liked Cunningham when he was getting 5. I LOVE him getting a touchdown.